Grey Rhinos and Black Swans
Understanding strategy and prepping for Grey Rhinos and Black Swans
When it comes to strategy, the corollaries to the ‘known, knowns’, the ‘known unknowns’, and the ‘unknown unknowns’ are to ‘expect the expected’, to ‘expect the unexpected’. And finally, to be completely floored by the unexpected.
That is to shift strategically from Business-As-Usual (BAU), to dealing with a Grey Rhino (a highly probable, high impact, yet neglected threat) to a Black Swan event (the unknown unknowns).
Given that we have experienced at least three Black Swans in our lifetimes which to some were credible ‘Grey Rhino’ events, (9/11, the GFC and the CoVid pandemic), the opportunities to change the way we do things, to be prepared for the unexpected and create resilient ‘future-fit’ organisations, are no longer ‘nice-to-have’. They are essential.
However, the opportunities to change are the positives of the ‘unexpected’.
Before focusing on ‘where to begin’, it is worth reminding ourselves of where we have come from and what we have achieved. Let’s focus momentarily on the Pandemic achievements.
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In the first 4 weeks of the CoVid-19 pandemic, governments - federal, state and local – and businesses - both large, cumbersome businesses and smaller, nimble business - quickly assessed the new situation.
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Over the next 8 weeks Australia and the world adapted. New operating arrangements were set up. Where possible people worked from home. Digitisation plans that had been relegated to three-year timeframes at least, were taken off the shelves, activated and delivered in weeks.
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Over the next 4-5 months authorities, departments and businesses accommodated a new normal. Banks pivoted to becoming the financial ICUs of the nation. Job keeper supports came into play. Wineries manufactured sanitiser. Through global collaboration, vaccines were developed, tested and delivered in record time. Productivity soared. Zoom and Teams were the order of the day. And digitisation happened by default.
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From 6 months on, as global supply chain disruption became a reality, we adjusted. The manufacturing shortfalls were clearer, our roles better understood, and new ways of working more hybridised. Collaboration, accountability, and resilience transformed from buzzwords to ‘actuality’.
What did we learn?
One of the biggest learnings was the realisation that the ability to change quickly was not only possible, but could work well.
Trust returned.
We understood the importance of iterating and the value of simplicity.
We connected with clarity and purpose.
We also discovered our Strengths and our Weaknesses, as well as our Threats.
Now it is time to work on our Opportunities.
With a deeper understanding of the value of taking a holistic approach to change, it is more important than ever to simplify the complexity and bridge the gap between strategic ambition and results.
To really understand and evolve our operating models.
Definition of an Operating Model
An operating model describes the way an organisation does business. It articulates how an organisation delivers value. It can also target its aspirations to doing business into the future. To do so the operating model needs to be dynamic. More than ever, it needs to be responsive to constant change and shifting demands – internally, externally and strategically.
A robust operating model needs to continuously iterate each of its elements: its processes, organisation, decision making, software applications, locations etc. To do so requires a holistic approach - a blueprint that understands how all the moving parts fit together.
Our ‘unexpected’ achievements over the past two years position our organisations to do this.
